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Tag: Climate Change

  • The Magnitude of Climate Change-Induced Migration: An Overview of Projections and a Case for Attribution

    The Magnitude of Climate Change-Induced Migration: An Overview of Projections and a Case for Attribution

    While it has been vastly proved that weather and climate affect migration, few studies have attempted to project future impacts or attribute past migration patterns to climate change.

    In light of this, in this paper the existing projections of climate change impacts on human migration are reviewed.

    A comparison reveals that projections for international migration from African countries differ by up to two orders of magnitude, while for internal migration even the direction of change is uncertain. None of the existing models adequately explain historical migration trends, limiting confidence in their forecasts.

    The authors then discuss two modeling approaches: econometric models, which identify marginal climate effects but are limited for long-term projections, and total migration models, which can capture complex dynamics but are difficult to constrain.

    In the end, they suggest that future improvements may come from better understanding nonlinear responses to increasingly extreme climate conditions.

    Learn more about this paper here: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1570995

    Reference

    Schewe, J., & Beyer, R. (2025). The magnitude of climate change-induced migration: An overview of projections and a case for attribution. Frontiers in Climate, Volume 7

  • The Nexus Between Migration and Environmental Degradation Based on Fundamental Climate Variables and Extreme Climate Indices for the MENA Domain

    The Nexus Between Migration and Environmental Degradation Based on Fundamental Climate Variables and Extreme Climate Indices for the MENA Domain

    According to the authors of this study, environmental migration has recently become the primary source of population growth in the Middle East and North Africa, as environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives.

    In line with this, they propose to investigate how environmental degradation and climate extremes influence migration in the MENA region, using a hybrid approach that combines regional climate modeling (RegCM4.4) with statistical analysis (ordered logit). The analysis covers 65 countries and projects impacts for the periods 2021–2050 and 2051–2080.

    The study assesses how key climate variables – maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation – along with indicators such as hot days, tropical nights, and dry days, affect net migration rates.

    Findings show that minimum temperatures are projected to increase in all major cities, while precipitation is expected to decline in mid-latitude and Mediterranean regions.

    Statistical results indicate a positive relationship between rising minimum temperatures and net migration, and a negative relationship between precipitation and migration. These trends suggest that worsening heat and water scarcity may encourage migration toward cooler regions.

    Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564

    Reference

    An, N., Demiralay, Z., Ucal, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2025). The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain. Climate Services, 38

  • Unveiling the Interrelations Between Migration, Climate Change, and Energy Transitions in the Context of Socioeconomic Disparities

    Unveiling the Interrelations Between Migration, Climate Change, and Energy Transitions in the Context of Socioeconomic Disparities

    The interplay between migration, climate change, energy transitions, and socioeconomic inequality are examined in this paper, highlighting their influence on regional resilience and sustainable development.

    Through an analysis of existing literature, it investigates how migration is shaped by environmental stress, energy challenges, and economic inequalities, emphasizing the dual role of migration as both a response to and a driver of climate change.

    Additionally, it analyzes the relationship between energy systems and migration, focusing on how energy access, transitions, and sustainability efforts influence socioeconomic conditions, particularly in vulnerable regions. Key gaps are also identified in the literature, especially concerning the social and economic impacts of these interconnected processes.

    Results suggest that energy transitions can either reduce or intensify regional inequalities and shape resilience to climate-induced migration.

    The authors conclude by advocating for a more integrated policy and research agenda that links climate migration, energy security, and socioeconomic equity.

    Learn more about this paper here: https://doi.org/10.3390/en18071625

    Reference

    Łukaniszyn-Domaszewska, K., Mazur-Włodarczyk, K., & Łukaniszyn, M. (2025). Unveiling the Interrelations Between Migration, Climate Change, and Energy Transitions in the Context of Socioeconomic Disparities. Energies, 18(7), 1625

  • The Impact of Climate Change on Forced Migration in the Sahel: Human RightsPerspective (Nigeria as a Case Study)

    The Impact of Climate Change on Forced Migration in the Sahel: Human RightsPerspective (Nigeria as a Case Study)

    Noticing how climate change casts a shadow on Nigeria’s Sahel region, driving environmental degradation, disrupting livelihoods, and displacing communities, with grave consequences, leaving the most vulnerable in the society square up against human rights abuses in their search to escape their environmental misfortune, the authors saw imperative to study the phenomena.

    This narrative review examines the human rights dimensions of climate change–induced migration in Nigeria’s Sahel region, where environmental degradation, livelihood disruption, and displacement have intensified. Anchored in environmental migration theory, a human rights–based approach, intersectionality theory, and governance and policy theory, it explores the drivers, impacts, and potential solutions to this complex issue.

    Droughts, desertification, and erratic rainfall were identified as major environmental factors forcing communities to migrate. Climate change is shown to severely affect livelihoods and food security, raising serious human rights concerns related to access to food, water, health, and education, particularly for vulnerable groups.

    Study results emphasize the need for a comprehensive response that combines climate mitigation and adaptation, stronger legal protections for climate migrants, humanitarian assistance, and investment in sustainable development, and it is concluded that improved collaboration and policy action among stakeholders are essential to address root causes, protect human rights, and ensure that equity and inclusion guide all interventions.

    Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.3968/13313

    Reference

    Nenger, Jerome A., Nancy U. Odimegwu and Casmir N. Nwankwo (2024), “The Impact of Climate Change on Forced Migration in the Sahel: Human Rights
    Perspective (Nigeria as a case study)”, Canadian Social Science
    Vol. 20, No. 1, 2024, pp. 23-31

  • Preparing for Climate Migration and Integration: A Policy and Research Agenda

    Preparing for Climate Migration and Integration: A Policy and Research Agenda

    Recent research on climate migration is reviewed in this paper, including projections of future migrant numbers, while introducing a typology that distinguishes strategic migrants, disaster migrants, managed relocation, and trapped populations.

    Drawing on migration theory and research on immigrant and refugee integration, the author proposes that wealthy countries allocate additional visas to poorer countries affected by climate change, partly as a form of climate justice.

    These visas could enable strategic migrants to establish social networks that facilitate further migration and eventually support disaster migrants and relocated communities through co-ethnic relations.

    The author also draws on refugee studies to identify key questions about how best to integrate disaster migrants in the future.

    Additionally, the growing link between climate denialism and anti-immigrant sentiment within right-wing movements is examined.
    It is argued that planning for the successful integration of climate migrants is essential, not only for humanitarian reasons but also to maintain the social trust needed for effective climate mitigation.

    Learn more about this paper here: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2024.2438449

    Reference

    Waters, M. C. (2025). Preparing for climate migration and integration: a policy and research agenda. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 51(1), 4–23

  • Drought and Aridity Influence Internal Migration Worldwide

    Drought and Aridity Influence Internal Migration Worldwide

    While the effects of climate change on migration have attracted wide attention, comparative evidence on their role in internal migration remains scarce.

    Using census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) and 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions, this study shows that increased drought and aridity significantly influence internal migration, particularly in hyper-arid and arid regions of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

    It is evident that migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependence, and level of urbanization of both origin and destination areas, with stronger responses in rural and agricultural regions.

    And although climatic effects on migration are generally stronger in richer countries, poorer regions tend to experience higher out-migration toward wealthier areas within the same country.

    Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, revealing distinct mobility patterns across population subgroups and geographic contexts.

    Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1

    Reference

    Hoffmann, R., Abel, G., Malpede, M. et al. Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 1245–1253 (2024)

  • Effects of Climate Change on Migration in Latin America and Caribbean: A Scoping Review

    Effects of Climate Change on Migration in Latin America and Caribbean: A Scoping Review

    Climate change-induced natural disasters such as hurricanes, landslides, forest fires, and changes in precipitation directly affect rural sectors that depend on field production and other dimensions of everyday life.

    This scoping review examines the health effects of climate change on environmental migrants in Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where evidence on this topic remains limited.

    The review analyzes 31 studies identified from PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar in English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

    Findings show that climate change affects migrants across three main dimensions: health and healthcare, psychosocial well-being, and infrastructure. Health impacts include limited access to care, underdiagnosis, increased disease vulnerability, and mental health conditions such as stress and anxiety.

    Psychosocial effects involve heightened risks of gender-based violence, social marginalization, family separation, and loss of cultural identity, while infrastructural impacts include environmental degradation and the destruction of agricultural and urban systems.

    The review also documents adaptive responses among migrant populations and offers recommendations for improvement, highlighting the significant and multidimensional consequences of climate change for migrants in the region.

    Learn more about this review here: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1412285

    Reference

    Cabieses, B., & Huerta, C. (2024). Effects of climate change on migration in Latin America and Caribbean: A scoping review. Frontiers in Climate, Volume 6-2024

  • Climate Change and Migration: A Review and New Framework for Analysis

    Climate Change and Migration: A Review and New Framework for Analysis

    Seeing how most climate-related migration research remains overly environment – centric, a new interpretive framework is introduced in this article.

    The proposed framework considers five pathways through which climate change may influence migration: short-term shocks, long-term climatic changes, environmental “pull” factors, climate adaptation and mitigation measures, and perceptions and narratives.

    While reviewing evidence across these pathways, the study finds that short-term shocks can both increase and reduce migration, while long-term trends provide only a weak basis for predicting future dynamics.

    Nonetheless, it notes that the latter three pathways remain underexplored, by researchers and policymakers alike.

    Overall, the framework and evidence reviewed suggest a broader and more nuanced understanding of climate-related migration than that reflected in recent IPCC assessments and much of the existing literature.

    Learn more about this article here: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.886

    Reference

    Daoust, G., & Selby, J. (2024). Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis. WIREs Climate Change, 15(4)

  • Climate Change and Migration: Climate Change Induced Migration in International Law and the Human Right to a Sustainable Environment

    Climate Change and Migration: Climate Change Induced Migration in International Law and the Human Right to a Sustainable Environment

    As droughts, floods, sea-level rise, and other climate change induced phenomena are substantially threatening lives and livelihoods, forcing many to abandon their homes, despite the global dimension of these increasing phenomena, international legal instruments remain insufficient to deal with environmental migration, leaving those affected under insecure circumstances, and many unresolved issues.

    In an attempt at clarification on this complex problem, this paper discusses the difficulties surrounding climate-induced migration in international law and explains why the term “climate refugee” is not yet accurate or legally recognized. The case study of Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand is used to show how these theoretical challenges affect individuals in practice.

    The paper concludes by exploring alternative approaches that move beyond existing legal frameworks, suggesting a shift toward integrating migration into climate adaptation strategies.

    It suggests that such efforts could be supported through adaptation funding and strengthened by emerging international legal developments, including the pending advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice on the human right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment.

    Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.25365/vlr-2023-7-1-94

    Reference

    Karnicar, Carina (2023), “Climate Change and Migration
    Climate Change Induced Migration in International Law and the Human Right to a Sustainable Environment”, University of Vienna Law Review, Vol. 7 No. 1 (2023)

  • Migration, Climate Change, and Voluntariness

    Migration, Climate Change, and Voluntariness

    Climate change challenges the means of subsistence for many, particularly in the Global South. To respond to the challenges of climate change, governments increasingly resort to resettling those most affected by land erosion, heat, drought, floods, and the like.

    In this article, the author investigates to what extent resettlement can compensate for the harm that climate-induced migration brings, and questions whether such measures can address the deeper ethical consequences of displacement.

    What are designated as three central harms are identified. First, climate change alters people’s options to such an extent that migration can no longer be considered fully voluntary and may even become coercive. Second, climate-induced migration severs individuals’ ties to territory, which are constitutive for personal autonomy. Third, the loss of traditional and historical lands undermines people’s capacity to imagine a future.

    It is concluded that although resettlement may improve material well-being and human flourishing, it cannot fully compensate for the harm done to individual autonomy, even when relocation is planned and chosen.

    Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0892679423000412

    Reference

    Straehle, C. (2023). Migration, Climate Change, and Voluntariness. Ethics & International Affairs, 37(4), 452–469